Decision details

The reasons for the decision are:

GMCA has seen success in their criminal justice and offender management approach, including high desistance rates in the IOM cohort. However, there is still high demand from those already in the criminal justice system. GMCA aims to act quickly for this cohort through a whole system approach, including a single front door for services, a peer support delivery model, and the potential to become a centre of excellence for other regions.
To achieve this, GMCA needs to understand the cost impact of the revolving door cohort (prolific, often acquisitive crime low-level offenders with high unmet needs) on their criminal justice services: police, courts, prisons, and probation. This understanding will help GMCA articulate a business case for interventions that divert people away from or out of the criminal justice system. This needs to be completed by the end of May to be included in the GMCA Spending Review submission to Government.
Newton and Xantura have partnered with the criminal justice reform charity Revolving Doors to highlight the impact and costs of failing to meet the needs of the ‘revolving door’ cohort—people who have frequent contact with the criminal justice system. This work has already revealed the extent of unmet needs among this cohort and the potential benefits of earlier or more flexible interventions.
Newton and Xantura have delivered a range of criminal justice assessments and programmes, working alongside HMPPS and MoJ senior leaders. They also collaborate across the public sector, including local authorities and health systems in Greater Manchester.
The scope of this project involves utilising existing GMCA-held and open-source data to develop an indicative assessment of the cost impact of the prolific offender cohort. This will be supplemented by Newton/Xantura held data and insights about the characteristics of the revolving door cohort to enhance GMCA’s existing perspective.
Additionally, the project will outline the potential benefits of various interventions for this cohort. The allocated budget for this initiative is £49,999, with a completion deadline set for the end of May.
The total anticipated costs are expected to exceed £250,000, with Newton and Xantura committed to covering any additional expenses beyond the initial budget. Further details regarding costs and investment will be provided as scoping and contracting discussions progress.
A key outcome of this project is for other HMPPS regions to learn from GMCA's success and implement similar strategies to reduce the cost impact of the revolving door cohort. This will inform decisions on the effectiveness and scalability of interventions, promoting best practices across regions.

Newton and Xantura will conduct a cost impact analysis on the revolving door cohort by combining their held data and insights about the characteristics of this cohort to supplement GMCA’s existing view, at a cost of £49,999.